By Alistair McIntosh, chief executive, HQN

That phrase just about sums up most of the “welcome to the New Year” comments I am seeing in housing. Our leaders are calling for rents to go up a bit and they want to build more homes. That may well be sensible. But we are living in turbulent times. Are we certain that domestic policy will be front of mind for the government? I wouldn’t bet on it. We need to take the blinkers off.

Where did this business as usual idea come from anyway? Churchill used these words a lot at the start of the First World War. His hope was that the British economy was so strong it would power on regardless of what was happening overseas. That illusion didn’t last for long. Boris Johnson recycled the phrase at the start of Covid. You know what happened next. When the world turns, so must we.

If we were getting ready for the risk of war that last budget would have been very different.  Reeves would have thrown money at farmers to boost food security and encouraged (or compelled) the rich to keep their cash in the UK. She’d be urging all of us to put more money into some sort of government savings or pension fund to boost her war chest. Yet she went in the opposite direction. If we are facing a menacing world Reeves will need to pull off one heck of a hand brake turn.

What could this mean for housing? These are terrifying times but here is a glimmer of hope. In relaxed periods governments waste a lot of energy. Yes, I am thinking of the idiotic football regulator and other such nonsense. Surely in tougher times there should be a laser focus, as the PM is fond of saying, on essential tasks like getting kids out of so-called temporary accommodation. We just can’t afford the human and financial damage.

In a siege economy everyone is a vital cog in the wheel.  Would that make the government a bit more determined to build homes? In happy times there is no urgency at all when it comes to infrastructure. I moved out of South Oxfordshire in 1999 partly because I feared the disruption of the new reservoir. What a waste of time. It’s still not started. But if we really did value people the government would blast through blockages to homes and infrastructure. No one believes the current system of pass the parcel to very slow music makes any sense.

To state the obvious it would be better if the world just calmed down. In the immortal words from Blackadder let’s hope that “the big knobs have got round the table and yanked the iron out of the fire”. Peacetime is a precious gift; we should use it better than we do.

If the world settles down we can get back to worrying about AI. That is certainly today’s obsession. To stand out from the crowd, I am not claiming to be an expert on this sorcery. But I have taken many books out of the library to read up about it. For what it is worth…

AI is not a bubble there is something of real value there. We will be rushing to use it and it is not yet perfect. So there will be expensive screw ups. That is an evergreen theme with technology. Let’s learn from mistakes not get on high horses.

There are fears of mass job losses. Will this actually happen? McKinsey points out that in the USA “…demand for labour has remained strong through multiple waves of automation, with new activities having been created faster than technology has replaced existing ones.” But the “broad reach” of AI may be more of a threat to jobs. Time will tell. Though as McKinsey says – “If history is a guide, employment is likely to evolve rather than contract…”

What would I do if I was a younger person? I’d look at my job and split it in two. The tasks that can be automated and those that need the human touch. For the former I’d identify how AI can help and learn how to apply it. For the rest I would work relentlessly to hone my skills and knowledge. Get it right and you will be irreplaceable. Barack Obama’s advice is timeless – if you “just learn how to get stuff done” your path will be easier.

Here is one example. Think about RSH inspections. There is a huge workload for the inspectors as well as for the officers and board members under the microscope. AI can help both sides. It can grind through the board papers and performance data to pinpoint the good, the bad and the ugly. In the hands of skilled inspectors and board members or officers this can not only save plenty of time but lead to sharper discussions. Maybe it could free up time to visit estates and engage properly with tenants. So the overall judgement would be more rounded.