Members only

The main job of an in depth assessment by the regulator is to check your financial resilience. Stress testing is a big part of this.  You’ve got to convince their team that you grasp the risks and have the headroom to deal with these. This session is your chance to hear the latest thinking from the regulator on what they are watching out for.  You’ll come away with practical tips to hone stress testing.

It’s not hard to anticipate the basic exam question is it? Very simply costs are going up while income is falling. This pincer movement differs from place to place. Your board has to grasp what levers to pull, and when, in your unique circumstances.

We’ll look at the impact on business plans of inflation, interest rates hikes, wage rises, safety works and the costs of professionalisation.  Set against that we will consider rent caps, limits on service charges and falling sales. The last few years have seen shocks like Brexit and Covid – what could happen next? Will campaigns for reform of shared ownership and leasehold bear fruit? MPs are certainly listening. Changes here could have a major impact on some business plans. What, if anything, will the general election do to your finances?

Regulators will want to hear about your plans to deal with, or mitigate, stresses. Is it really feasible to cut costs now that the minister is calling for “Ofsted-style” inspections of services to residents? Is it still possible to merge your way out of a crisis? At some point we could run out of options here.

Stress testing will help councils and ALMOs too. They must plan for the crises on the horizon. Many councils are saying they will be in effect bankrupt and need to issue s114 notices. A change in government might not loosen the purse strings.

Here’s a taster of what our speakers will cover:

Adrian Jolliffe, Director, 2tix Ltd:

• What are the interest rate markets doing and what is the outlook for interest rates?
• What changes have we seen lately? Are lenders becoming more selective?
• What does the outlook for inflation look like?  What leading indicators should we follow?
• Margins went up when interest rates fell to record lows.  Now rates are back to over 5%, and borrowing activity is lower, is there room for a readjustment?
• As interest cover and surpluses fall, will funders be more selective or respond with increased margins?

Ian Parker, HQN Associate and Housing Finance Lead:

• What are the variable and fixed market rates now?
• Which funders are keen to lend?
• What do the short, medium and long term rates look like?
• What is the relationship between CPI and the projected rates?
• As interest cover and surpluses fall, will funders start to increase their margins?

Get answers to these questions and more. Hear from the experts and debate with other finance experts.

10.30 Welcome from the Chair

• • Alistair McIntosh, Chief Executive, HQN

10.35 Sector risk and stress testing – what’s on the RSH radar?

• • Tom O’Reilly, Senior Financial Analysis Manager, RSH

11.35 Break

11.50 Anticipating stresses and developing accurate scenarios

• • Alistair McIntosh, Chief Executive, HQN

12.30 Financial, treasury and investment issues

• • Adrian Jolliffe, Director, 2tix Ltd

13.00 Stress testing and mitigation actions

• • Ian Parker, HQN Housing Finance Network associate

13.30 Closing remarks from the Chair

• • Alistair McIntosh, Chief Executive, HQN

Alistair McIntosh, Chief Executive, HQN

Alistair McIntosh is one of the social housing sector’s most respected and best known personalities. As founder and Chief Executive of HQN, he is regarded as one of the foremost advisers on governance and regulation, specialising in VfM and stress testing. His hands-on approach sees Alistair leading on all HQN’s in-depth assessment mock exercises and support work, designing and running the popular Iron Grip sessions and chairing/speaking at conferences and events. Career highlights include setting up and running the National Federation of ALMOs, leading the popular consultation on the regulatory standards for housing, and developing an approach to VfM that won praise from the housing minister. A regular contributor to the housing press, Alistair’s columns are known for their humorous, pointed and painfully accurate assessment of the state of social housing.

Adrian Jolliffe, Director, 2tix Ltd

Adrian has considerable knowledge and experience in all aspects of corporate borrowing and finance, particularly in relation to registered providers of social housing and charities. He has helped set up registered providers and charities from scratch and also helped dozens of affordable housing providers borrow millions to invest in Social Housing. In the past he has also undertaken interim treasury director roles in very complex housing groups with loan portfolios over £1bn. Prior to setting up 2TIX LTD, Adrian was a director of two FCA authorised firms, and before that had 20 years’ experience in financial services, working at a senior level in Barclays Bank and Nationwide Building Society.

Ian Parker, HQN Housing Finance Network associate

Ian has worked in the public sector for 40 years. During his career he has worked in senior positions in local government and has been the Finance Director at four RPs.  Ian has worked as a consultant for the last eight years and during that period has:

• Developed HQN’s VfM metric model
• Provided advice to clients about the sector’s VfM agenda
• With Alistair McIntosh, Ian has undertaken over 60 IDAs and 1oo stress testing sessions across England, Wales, Australia, Scotland and Guernsey
• Developed HQN’s merger model.

Ian is HQN’s Lead Finance Associate and in that role, he provides advice to members of the Housing Finance Network and also ensures that they receive relevant news and technical updates.

Tom O’Reilly, Senior Financial Analysis Manager, RSH

Tom is a Chartered Accountant with extensive experience in finance, external audit and regulation. He has worked in a top ten professional services firm in the UK where he was responsible for the financial statement audits of registered providers of social housing. In his current role at the regulator he leads In Depth Assessments for a wide portfolio of registered providers, with a focus on the quality of stress testing. As a regulator, Tom evaluates providers’ strategic direction, business planning, risk management frameworks, asset management strategies and approaches to VfM. He has a keen understanding of the current challenges and risks facing the social housing sector.

If you are unable to attend an event or public training course, please let us know in writing (email is fine) at least 48 hours before. Please email [email protected]

Otherwise, a cancellation fee of £60 plus VAT will be chargeable.

If you are using a package place to attend and do not inform us within the agreed time frame, then a place will be taken to cover your non-attendance.

Cancellations must be made in writing, and will be acknowledged by HQN Limited