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Stress testing 2017 – from risk maps to reality

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Stress testing 2017 - from risk maps to reality

“The time for leniency is at an end”.

That’s what Julian Ashby says. And of course, he is right. You can expect to see a lot more V2s soon. So, it’s getting tougher.

The HCA keeps banging the drum about stress testing. They go to town on it at every IDA. Why? It’s partly because Grenfell caught many of us cold. Did your risk map see it coming? What’s around the corner? It might be problems stemming from climate change. Could we deal with it? It’s also a lot to do with sales risk. The Bank of England tells lenders to test for a 33% drop in prices.

And all the while we need to be on top of welfare reform, Brexit and whatever else the world throws at us. You know that testing for problems with consumer standards is now a big deal. So it’s a wider agenda this year. The tenants are back on the bus, so to speak.

What flaws are the HCA pouncing on?

  • Stress testing in splendid isolation divorced from the business plan
  • Half-hearted ill thought through mitigations that lack clarity and precision
  • Projecting cuts to planned maintenance and increased sales receipts to get you over pinch points with insufficient supporting evidence
  • Confusion about who does what when things go wrong in over complicated structures
  • Fantasies about the future profitability of subsidiaries and a Baldrick style plan B for when it falls over
  • Blind faith in commercial partners instead of cold hearted due diligence
  • No ability to spot where risks could come from never mind stress testing for them
  • Bought in of the shelf stress testing that does not engage with your issues at all.

There is no excuse for any of these. We can show you how to do a much better job.

At our 'Stress Testing 2017' event, taking place the day after Philip Hammond's Autumn Budget, you will hear direct from the HCA and industry experts alongside HQN's team which has undertaken more than 70 presentations to boards about the stress testing you need to model and how to maintain an Iron Grip on the business.

Key themes:     

  • The HCA's new Value for Money standard – what it will mean for your organisation
  • Getting risk maps right – why have they consistently failed to spot dangers – is the system inherently unreliable or can it be improved
  • Potential UK economic shocks (including Chinese capital controls stopping investment in the UK) and mitigations
  • Good practice on spotting and mitigating risks at individual associations
  • Using modelling and other evidence to facilitate effective board discussions on stress testing
  • Common flaws in stress testing – such as optimism bias (the housing market always turns round); glib mitigations (don’t worry we can get high rents for all the homes we can’t sell); dangerous mitigations (chopping the maintenance spending as a balancing figure); and not getting the right data at the right time (curtailing your response time). 

Who should attend?

  • Chief executives
  • Executive directors
  • Board members
  • Policy and strategy teams
  • Governance teams
  • Financial management teams.

This event will also be held in Manchester.

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Further information

Delegate fees:
Full price: £289.00 *
Members of any HQN network: £209.00 *
Early Bird: £259.00 *

* Please note that all prices are subject to standard VAT. Please call 0845 4747 004 for more information. Early bird ends Friday 20 October 2017.  

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